Peak Oil & Post Peak Oil Changes To Society Articles

Discussion in 'The big picture' started by Jez, Jun 28, 2006.

  1. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Thread for Peak Oil articles/data and post Peak Oil articles - there are now thousands upon thousands of articles out there on these subjects, so please just post the most relevant/best expressed ones.

    The energy crisis which we're only now seeing the relatively painless beginning of will be the defining event of all our lives...with Global Warming not far behind. While Global Warming may take decades to really adversely affect the average person, Peak Oil is here and now - a global economic collapse or spectacular contraction may well be just around the corner if the right 'trigger event' comes to pass...war in Iran or a US attack; a hurricane season in the US like last year; Nigerian freedom fighters gaining increasing success in their attacks on Shell holdings in Nigeria; more dramatic unrest in Iraq; diversion of Venezuelan supplies away from Western markets to the East...there are so many possible 'trigger events' it would take forever to list them all...the above are just some of the more likely to occur - hopefully not in tandum as is entirely possible.

    From a Permaculturists perspective, Peak Oil is not necessarily bad news - I prefer to share David Holmgren's relatively optimistic view of looking at it as an opportunity rather than a necessarily bad event. People will be increasingly forced to take positive steps to restructure their lives in positive ways...increasing growth of local industries and relocalisation will become the norm, reversing many of the harms of globalisation...many ecologically and societally harmful industries will be severely hampered in their operations or outright cease to exist...there are too many 'benefits' to list, but they have the potential to eventually reshape the world along far more positive, sustainable lines than what we see today.

    Below is some of the critically important reading material needed to begin to understand the concept of Peak Oil - how it will affect the global economy and us as individuals, and what can be done both on a global/national level, and at an individual level to avoid the worst of the fallout. Some of the articles are long, some are demanding, others are designed to be easily read and understood, IMO all are important. For balance, some more technical articles about the global economy and the fossil fuels industry are also included, though these are aimed more at those wishing further information than as vitally important reading.

    Please feel free to contribute further articles (it's not easy to condense tens of thousands of articles down to a mere handful so I may miss an important aspect which someone may like to add) or comment on those included.
     
  2. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Peak Oil primer From Energy Bulletin Website (Click here to view Peak Oil Primer in full)

    ...

    Peak Oil is the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, or more specifically, the peak in global oil production. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a half. The rate of oil 'production,' meaning extraction and refining (currently about 84 million barrels/day), has grown in most years over the last century, but once we go through the halfway point of all reserves, production becomes ever more likely to decline, hence 'peak'. Peak Oil means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire. Without significant successful cultural reform, economic and social decline seems inevitable.

    ---------------------------------------------------

    * NOTE - many links to more information etc at bottom of linked page.
     
  3. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    THE PARADIGM IS THE ENEMY: The State of the Peak Oil Movement at the Cusp of Collapse (click here for full article)

    This is an excellent easy to read summary of the Peak Oil phenomenon which brings us fairly much up to date with the present (speech is from late April)

     
  4. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Some right up to date economic insight into the current effects of high energy prices on the global economy...the 'calm' before the storm, but still hurting many even at this stage.

    Peak Oil Passnotes: The Oil Wave Ripples (click here for full article)


     
  5. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    A slightly technical article which is a refutation of common MSM (main stream media) type idiocy, but also a good insight into the historic decline in the oil discovery industry.


    The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline (click here for full article)

    ...

    No super giant fields have been found in the past 25 years, and all the rock structures on the planet where such fields could be found are known.

    We will not find more oil. We will squeeze more out of the existing fields, thus generating new "reserves" (in their economic definition), but we are already running out of the cheap and easy to produce stuff.

    Peak oil is very real.[/quote:1y5tzqqo]
     
  6. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Peak Opportunity! Earth Liberation and the Oil Endgame (click here for full article)

    This is a unashamedly anarchistic take on the imminent energy crisis, but well worth including for both its easy to read format and its also easy to read analysis of alternatives to oil usage


     
  7. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Envisioning a Hamlet Economy: Topology of Sustainability and Fulfilled Ontogeny (click here for full article)

    This article is not as difficult to read/understand as the title and excerpt below suggests...and contains loads of worthwhile thoughts and concepts regarding the restructuring of cities, towns and villages in a post Peak Oil world.


     
  8. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    What the mainstream media are not telling you about the run up in oil prices (click here for full article)

    A rundown on relatively current oil/economy news, with a (quite telling IMO) hypothesis as to why the average person is still largely unaware of the depths of the impending energy crisis - it's not at all in the interests of the key economic players (and the MSM as a result) for us to know.


     
  9. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Easy To Read Article Which Delves Into How Oil Wells Deplete, How This Relates To Overestimated Reserves, And How The Information Is Misused And Hidden By The MSM And The Global Energy Giants (click here for full article)

    The horribly long title I gave it almost says it all...:wink:...but also take note; oil extraction has been likened to eating a tub of yoghurt...the first half is easy, the closer you get to the bottom the tougher it is to get a decent spoonful...then imagine someone was trickling water (increasingly corrosive salt water in the case of Saudi Arabia) in at the same time.


     
  10. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    James Howard Kunstler - Oil Spiel (click here for full article)

    Quite long, but very easy to read article summarising the views of JHK from recent speeches, author of The Long Emergency.

     
  11. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    The energy wars - by Michael Hirsh (click here for article excerpt - original full article no longer available)

    Is well armed, comfort loving, "don't mess with our way of life" America going to take the onset of Peak Oil and a growing scarcity of energy lying down? It is unlikely (see the Iraq war). Are the rapidly expanding economies of China and India going to humbly stop all growth due to lack of energy? Also unlikely. When the two giants in this equation (China and the US) begin to butt heads over the issue and start gathering allies to their cause, we will more than likely face either small scale or (hopefully not) global scale warfare. Unless each side of this very serious equation can learn to get by with less energy, share and cooperate, this issue could take the world into a very dangerous era.

     
  12. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Can oil companies handle more storms? (click here for full article)

    US oil extraction companies based in the Gulf Coast are still reeling from the effects of hurricane Katrina...and an even more active hurricane season is expected this year. As the saying goes...when America sneezes the rest of the world gets a cold...the US is currently on the verge of a mighty big sneeze if predictions of hurricane activity hold true - not to mention the fact that last year's predictions for hurricane activity turned out to be an underestimate.


     
  13. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    A REALTOR'S VIEW FROM HUBBERT'S PEAK: The End of Cheap Oil and Cheap Money (click here for full article)

    This is a very important 'must read' article for those still playing the 'real estate will keep going up' game, those with large mortgages, or those with investment properties.

     
  14. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    The maturation of Matt Simmons, energy-industry investment banker and peak oil guru (click here for full article)

     
  15. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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  16. Sonya

    Sonya Junior Member

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    David Holmgren will be touring in coming months speaking about peak oil and permaculture. Check his website for details. Also interesting dvd - the Power of Community - How Cuba Survived Peak Oil. Explores how they survived using community gardens and permaculture after their oil was cut off.

    Sonya.
     
  17. caldera

    caldera Junior Member

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    insanity

    ignorance

    inertia

    its crazy

    very very interesting times

    i had a chat to day with 2 blood related people in my life who were worried what might happen if kim beazley wins the election and how good the last ten years has been with john howard in government

    i'm becoming a immune to this "insanity" as all attempts to express what i feel to be the REAL issues (one of them being the predicted extinction of 20-50 percent of all species on earth in the next 50 years, not to mention the energy situation) are followed by a few seconds of silence and then talk of the footy or some other distraction

    must try to remain centred and follow that niggle ... walk the talk and not take yourself to seriously

    thanks for the links :wink:
     
  18. Douglas J.E. Barnes

    Douglas J.E. Barnes Junior Member

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    As scary as this prospect may sound, I think that psychology comes into play here. Scary because dealing with psychological problems is very difficult. Most people deal with terrifying facts by ignoring them - I know I have not been totally immune from this. How do you help someone out of denial? Can you?
     
  19. Jez

    Jez Junior Member

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    Interesting times indeed Caldera!

    Part psychology IMO Douglas, part not knowing much of real worth about history, economics, the nature of capitalism, energy etc - understanding Peak Oil really does entail delving into diverse fields of expertise which bore the heck out of most people! :lol:

    Most people simply don't understand that Capitalism instantly becomes a horrible failure of a system without constant growth, nor connect the dots between constant growth and an absolute need for cheap, abundant energy. They don't understand what fueled (pun intended!) the growth which brought us our current standard of living...IMO it's typically thought of as stemming from a magical combination of our own intelligence and 'progress.' They don't know that historically there was a lot of starvation and poverty throughout the entire world before the industrial revolution. They don't recognise that an 'ultra-modern', wealthy country like Sweden (and many other examples) has only become genuinely capable of feeding itself in the last century...solely on the back of industrialised agriculture and our now dwindling fossil fuel reserves.

    Peak Oil is still widely portrayed in the MSM as being a 'doom theory' which is about 'running out of oil'...not simply a theory about the dire consequences for the global economy if our constant need for economic growth cannot be met by dwindling supplies of cheap, abundant energy.

    Most economists still don't really understand the consequences (mind you, NONE of them predicted the Great Depression - not one!), so it's not surprising the average person struggles to 'get it.'

    The psychology element (denial if you like) is virtually impossible to get around IMO. Peak Oil is a concept that destroys most people's construct of the world and how they fit into it. Given this fact, it's natural for most people to not want to hear about it.

    Combine that with the massive amounts of disinformation and outright 'easy lies' - generally put out there by those with a vested interest in things continuing on as 'normal' for as long as possible - and invariably most people will tend to stick with the 'easy lies' over facing the reality of the situation.

    The concept of growing your own food, providing your own independent source of energy, radically scaling down inputs etc, unfortunately does not sit well with the average 'bred to consume' Westerner.

    With oil topping $70 a barrel (and even those who push 'easy lies' not willing to say it will ever go down again...though avoiding saying it will rise dramatically further yet!) it gets harder for people to avoid thinking about it when they have to put fuel in the car every day, so while someone raising the topic a couple of years back may have been laughed at or treated with condecension, these days it's more likely to produce the sort of uncomfortable silence followed by a change of topic as Caldera describes.

    Unfortunately, I think it will take much more serious economic pain for most people to move beyond the phase of denial...no amount of 'preaching' or reasoning can reach a person that isn't ready/willing to be reached.

    If the person still in denial is someone that you care about, then IMO, the only productive thing you can do is - if you can financially afford to do so - make sure there is room for the people you care about in your 'lifeboat.'
     
  20. Douglas J.E. Barnes

    Douglas J.E. Barnes Junior Member

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